Monday, May 28, 2007
Saturday, May 05, 2007
First Saturday in May
It's here. I've been anxious for today all week. Since I'm not working I've had little else to do but worry about the derby. I've spent a lot of time this week reading about the race and checking out the past performances and pace figs. My selections:
Circular Quay: One hell of a horse who has done nothing but improve since last year's Breeder's Cup where he was bested by Street Sense. Three angles here: bred for distance and a natural closer, this horse should be coming on strong at the end. Picks up JR Velasquez for the race, which is important considering that Velasquez and his agent, Angel Cordero, get first choice on Pletcher's horses. Lastly, Pletcher worked this horse out alongside Rags to Riches over the last several weeks, and Circular Quay managed to go stride for stride with that monster of a horse. Should also be a great price.
Any Given Saturday: The flipside to Circular Quay getting Velasquez, who is Pletcher's favorite jockey, is that AGS gets Garret Gomez, who is mine. Here is a horse being downgraded after a third in the Wood. I think this is a horse who bounced after an amazing race with Street Sense in Tampa Bay. Is Street Sense a better horse than AGS? Maybe. The problem is that the Blue Grass didn't present any reason to think so, and that race was probably a throw out. If Street Sense is a Derby Winner, he should have also been able to take control of the Blue Grass. The Wood was a much more taxing race than that prep. Not to mention, AGS will be a nice price,too.
Tiago: Originally was going to be my sleeper selection, he's now bet down to a sick underlay at 8-1 and it may get worse. I'm including this horse because of his pedigree and the way he closed from last place in Santa Anita. Welsch in the DRF says he hasn't looked great on the track in the mornings. I think I'm less high on him at this price and with that information, but will still include him in exotics.
Curlin: There's reason to like and reason not to like. What can I say, I'm going to have to put the hometown boy in my tickets so I have a rooting interest in him. Despite being a sickening underlay and having no experience racing against graded stakes winners or any races as a 2 year old... you never know.
I'm going to throw in some Zanjero and some Stormello in there as bombs to help boost some ticket prices. At some point today I'll figure out how to arrange these horses into a superfecta.
The weather is still shitty in Kentucky today. Not sure how that will affect the race. I know yesterday it killed me as I went 1 for 6 in the pick 6, my 1 being a saver ticket with Rags to Riches, who I was hoping to beat with High Heels. So really and truly I went 0 for 6, a sad thing indeed. Probably the first time I ever goose egged it.
Tonight after the Derby is the De La Hoya Mayweather fight in Vegas. I'm as excited for that fight as I am for the Derby, and again will be hoping to beat the favorite. We are cheering for Oscar but inside I'm nervous as hell that he will get knocked out.
My two favorite sports, boxing and horseracing, on display on the same day. It's too much for me to handle! What will I look forward to tomorrow?
Oh yes, the World Series of Poker. What a goofy life I have.
Circular Quay: One hell of a horse who has done nothing but improve since last year's Breeder's Cup where he was bested by Street Sense. Three angles here: bred for distance and a natural closer, this horse should be coming on strong at the end. Picks up JR Velasquez for the race, which is important considering that Velasquez and his agent, Angel Cordero, get first choice on Pletcher's horses. Lastly, Pletcher worked this horse out alongside Rags to Riches over the last several weeks, and Circular Quay managed to go stride for stride with that monster of a horse. Should also be a great price.
Any Given Saturday: The flipside to Circular Quay getting Velasquez, who is Pletcher's favorite jockey, is that AGS gets Garret Gomez, who is mine. Here is a horse being downgraded after a third in the Wood. I think this is a horse who bounced after an amazing race with Street Sense in Tampa Bay. Is Street Sense a better horse than AGS? Maybe. The problem is that the Blue Grass didn't present any reason to think so, and that race was probably a throw out. If Street Sense is a Derby Winner, he should have also been able to take control of the Blue Grass. The Wood was a much more taxing race than that prep. Not to mention, AGS will be a nice price,too.
Tiago: Originally was going to be my sleeper selection, he's now bet down to a sick underlay at 8-1 and it may get worse. I'm including this horse because of his pedigree and the way he closed from last place in Santa Anita. Welsch in the DRF says he hasn't looked great on the track in the mornings. I think I'm less high on him at this price and with that information, but will still include him in exotics.
Curlin: There's reason to like and reason not to like. What can I say, I'm going to have to put the hometown boy in my tickets so I have a rooting interest in him. Despite being a sickening underlay and having no experience racing against graded stakes winners or any races as a 2 year old... you never know.
I'm going to throw in some Zanjero and some Stormello in there as bombs to help boost some ticket prices. At some point today I'll figure out how to arrange these horses into a superfecta.
The weather is still shitty in Kentucky today. Not sure how that will affect the race. I know yesterday it killed me as I went 1 for 6 in the pick 6, my 1 being a saver ticket with Rags to Riches, who I was hoping to beat with High Heels. So really and truly I went 0 for 6, a sad thing indeed. Probably the first time I ever goose egged it.
Tonight after the Derby is the De La Hoya Mayweather fight in Vegas. I'm as excited for that fight as I am for the Derby, and again will be hoping to beat the favorite. We are cheering for Oscar but inside I'm nervous as hell that he will get knocked out.
My two favorite sports, boxing and horseracing, on display on the same day. It's too much for me to handle! What will I look forward to tomorrow?
Oh yes, the World Series of Poker. What a goofy life I have.
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